Good analysis, Bill, and probably quite accurate, I am sad to say. If these evangelical subgroups haven’t abandoned Trump by now, they aren’t going to abandon him at all (barring his arrest for child porn, and even that might not be enough). Add to that the weakness and lefty-ness of the current Dem candidates and the absence of a solid, appealing, young moderate leader in either party currently willing to take him on, and you can make a case that Trump is likely to be re-elected despite that fact that at least 60 percent of American voters dislike him.
However, here’s the alternate case: Among the public at large, Trump is the weakest incumbent since LBJ in ’68, and that includes Carter in ’80 and Bush the Elder in ’92, both of whom lost. If the Dems produce a candidate who is at least better than the historically bad Hillary Clinton and do even marginally better in the battleground Midwestern states in ’20, they will defeat Trump. Trends indicate they will do much better. Those trends include the ’18 wave election, court-ordered redistricting in multiple states favoring Dems, the mass retirement of Repub House members who have likely concluded they can’t win re-election, the movement of multiple red states toward the middle, ongoing demographic change, a weakening economy made weaker by Trump’s disastrous tariffs — and last but not least, the mass voter mobilization of the many groups Trump has attacked, abused, insulted, shortchanged, deceived or otherwise offended: women, Hispanics, immigrants, African-Americans, farmers, blue-collar workers, etc.
That’s secular politics, which wasn’t the topic of your post. But two additional subgroups of evangelicals you didn’t specifically mention will be joining the coalition above:
1) Young, idealistic evangelicals who are appalled by Trump and his immoral policies (not just his nasty words and demeanor, but his destructive and anti-human policies toward immigrants, the poor and needy, minorities and others) and who are equally disgusted by their church-going parents, who have sold their birthright for a mess of Trumpage and a few conservative justices.
2) Former true-believer Republican evangelicals like me. Yeah, I’ve been a never-Trumper since 2015, but for 35 years before that I voted a straight Republican ticket. I never dreamed of voting for a Dem. I’m still conservative. I’m still pro-life. I still oppose many Dem/liberal policies. But I’ve seen my own party hijacked by a repulsive, lying, criminal demagogue who promotes self-destructive protectionism on the economic front, coddles and enables dictators and enemies of America around the world who abuse Christians and others, constantly attacks a free press, and has made the US a global laughingstock, which endangers all of us as bad guys fill the vacuum.
I don’t know how many of us there are, but there are a lot more of us than there were in 2016, and we might help turn the tide in several red states.